Long-Term Unemploymed and Discouraged Workers Take Brunt of March Disappointment

24/7 Wall St.

100279619The real terror of the March unemployment figures was not that the economy added only 88,000 jobs. Much worse than that is the lack of improvement in the situations of those battered the most by the halting recovery — the long-term unemployed and part-time and discouraged workers. So little progress has been made among these groups that it can barely be measured. And the best sign of a full-blown recovery likely will be when improvements occur across the broadest spectrum.

The number of long-term unemployed (those out of work more than 27 weeks) remained flat from February at 4.6 million, which is about the same as the population of all of urban Houston. These persons represent 36.9% of the entire unemployment pool. They put the heaviest burden on unemployment benefits, and as their plight reaches more than 99 weeks, many will have no benefits at all.

The other group that…

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Trade Deficit Shrinks Handily in February

24/7 Wall St.

Maersk container shipThe U.S. trade balance, better known as the trade deficit, was reported as -$43.0 billion for the month of February 2012. This is down from the -$44.8 billion expected by Bloomberg and is also lower than the -$44.4 billion reported in January. As a reminder, the jump in January was versus -$38.1 billion in December.

It appears that oil imports account for that big drop in the trade deficit. Oil imports appeared to be at a decade low and the higher exports of energy helped bridge the gap elsewhere.

Today’s report came from the Commerce Department, and there are two reasons that this does not move the needle much. Well, three reasons. First is that the numbers have a big lag as the data is two months old. Second is that trade deficits have persisted for what is now becoming most of our lifetimes. The last reason that today’s report…

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J.P. Morgan Says Apple and Other Underperforming Stocks Should Lead the Market in Second Quarter (AAPL, BRCM, CHKP, ESRX, MYL, TASR, CHS)

24/7 Wall St.

Apple-storeWith earnings season kicking off next week and a plethora of challenging global news hitting the tape, investors are becoming a touch skeptical of the current rally. Are we hitting a bump in the road after strong gains and looking to rebound after a sell-off? Or are more obstacles currently present that could derail the march to the secular bull market?

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) strategist Thomas Lee and his staff have concluded that leading stocks that underperformed in the first quarter of this year will pick up the baton and become the market leaders in the second quarter. In a research report released today, the mega Wall St. bank points out that the two worst-performing sectors in the first quarter have outperformed in the second quarter of the year in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. They went on to point out that has been the case…

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US unemployment improves to 7.7%

internationalwealth

EmploymentThe unemployment rate in the world’s largest economy unexpectedly fell from 7.9 to 7.7% – as payrolls rose by 146,000 in November, well ahead of analyst forecasts. The optimistic numbers thus suggest that the United States has gained monument despite worries about the imminent fiscal cliff of tax rises and spending cuts.

Experts commented that the improvement is unlikely to have an immediate impact on monetary policy, but if the jobs market does not lure more people to look for work, then it will force the Fed to rethink its stance. Currently, the US economy is set to grow by 2%.

The Bureau of Labour Statistics also said that the analysis suggests that Hurricane Sandy ‘did not substantively impact the national employment and unemployment estimates for November’.

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…start your engines

The Two-Woman Crusade

If you’re reading this you’ve survived Thanksgiving and Black Friday.  Congratulations.

Those who spent the wee hours of yesterday morning waiting outside your local Toys R Us, Best Buy, Kmart, Target, etc., you have my sympathies.  I only hope that it was worth it.

Personally the thought of standing out in the cold, and in many cases wet, before dawn sounds absolutely terrible to me.  Although I recognize that most power-shoppers are made of sterner stuff than me when it comes to the world of retail warfare.

However in a world where Amazon, Ebay, and online shopping for all of the retail outlets previously mentioned, I find it even more difficult to stomach the idea of a traditional Black Friday.

Sure online shopping may not have the thrill of sitting on a sidewalk in preparation for elbowing out other shoppers for the latest and greatest at an “unbeatable” price, but…

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Would the French Employment Plan Work in the U.S.?

24/7 Wall St.

Francois Hollande, the president of France, wants his government to spend roughly $2.5 billion to create 150,000 jobs in 2012 and 2013. The details of the program are complex. The central government would subsidize the hiring of young people. Many of those targeted would lack advanced educations. Hollande understands it is more difficult for people in this demographic segment to find jobs. American policy makers should ask if a similar plan might work in the United States.

The youth unemployment rate in most developed nations is as much as double what it is for people who are over 25. The numbers are worse for young people who do not have college educations. To address the job prospects of these people would be to attack one of the single most difficult problems in the labor market. Employers in developed nations continue to use weak jobs markets to hire highly qualified and highly educated workers, even for jobs that would often…

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